TREND 1: The economy

With central banks worldwide hiking interest rates throughout 2022, the borrowers' market created by excess liquidity and low interest rates is over. This change in the global economic climate is the macro-trend that sets the scene for the other commercial banking trends we expect to emerge in 2023.

Banks may face a wave of delinquencies; it’s too early to tell. What we do expect to see in 2023 is commercial banks planning for the worst—but also preparing to pivot rapidly toward investment and the pursuit of growth should the market indicators swing around. Forward-thinking institutions will invest in enhanced capabilities that build competitive differentiation and address long-term strategic imperatives such as core modernization.